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Entrevista exclusiva: Mark Greeven comenta os desafios da China

McCartney’s early eco-activism. “This is an issue that Stella had championed for 10, 15, 20 years…

Um país turbulento, com mudanças que ocorrem o tempo todo, uma população gigantesca e um processo de digitalização intenso. Estes são alguns conceitos que definem a China de acordo com Mark Greeven.

Na China é comum ver pessoas realizando pagamentos por meio de smartphones, fazendo compras no mobile e recebendo os produtos em meia hora. Este é o cotidiano de lá, em um nível que deverá ser alcançado pelo resto do mundo, inclusive o Brasil, em apenas 20 anos.

Parte da explicação para este cenário são os ecossistemas de negócios, encabeçados por gigantes como Alibaba e Tencent, que trouxeram um formato em que vários produtos e serviços distintos são oferecidos por negócios independentes, com um núcleo central.

Durante sua passagem pelo Brasil, onde participou do LATAM Retail Show, o mais completo evento de varejo e consumo da América Latina, o professor da IMD e autor do livro ‘Business Ecosystems in China: Alibaba and Competing Baidu, Tencent, Xiaomi and LeEco’, conversou com a Mercado & Consumo. Confira abaixo:

A China cresce abaixo de 7%, o resultado mínimo que eles buscam. O que eles estão fazendo errado?
Mark Greeven: Nenhuma economia pode continuar crescendo dois dígitos para sempre, o que desafiaria a lógica da economia. A China tem visto um crescimento milagroso há muito tempo e agora entramos em uma fase de maturidade, onde a taxa de crescimento econômico está diminuindo, enquanto a economia ainda está se expandindo mais rapidamente do que quase qualquer outra do mundo. Então, eu diria que o crescimento econômico da China não é de fato ruim. A economia da China está enfrentando desafios? É claro, existem desafios estruturais, como o sistema financeiro, reformas em andamento, excesso de capacidade nas indústrias, entre outros.

O governo da China investiu fortemente na construção e no setor de bens de consumo, focado no mercado interno. Mas isso criou uma dívida que eles talvez não consigam financiar, não é mesmo? Quais podem ser os resultados desse cenário?
De fato, a dívida não estará no setor de bens de consumo, mas em infraestrutura como a construção. Eu acho que você está falando de uma dívida do governo que eles não seriam capazes de pagar, possivelmente levando à quebra dos bancos dos governos locais. Esse risco certamente existe, embora devamos estar cientes de que esse risco é maior em algumas regiões do que em outras. Certamente, o governo central está ciente e está tomando medidas, mas não igualmente em todo o país.

Atualmente, um problema maior é que as empresas estão inadimplentes com seus empréstimos, levando à quebra de bancos locais e, como vimos, a resgates locais pelo governo. Esta certamente não é uma situação sustentável. Não obstante, não devemos esquecer que a economia da China é de política industrial e forte envolvimento do governo e, portanto, não podemos olhar para questões de dívida da mesma maneira que olharíamos de acordo com as regras tradicionais da economia de livre mercado.

O comércio realmente afetou a economia chinesa?
Eu acho que você está falando da guerra comercial com os EUA. Sim, isso está realmente afetando a economia chinesa. Mais importante, porém, está afetando os empresários chineses no setor privado. Não devemos esquecer que a “China” é impulsionada por empresários privados, pois mais de 70% da contribuição para o PIB vem do setor privado; ou seja, não do setor estatal. No entanto, o efeito não se limita à China.

Tomemos, por exemplo, a indústria automobilística alemã. Essa indústria é impulsionada pelo desenvolvimento da indústria automobilística chinesa e uma desaceleração ou barreiras regulatórias, tarifas e outros desafios estão afetando diretamente a indústria automobilística alemã e a cadeia de valor da indústria automobilística.

Qual seria o próximo passo de Pequim para manter a economia?
Em geral, acho que a promoção do consumo doméstico, o incentivo ao empreendedorismo e o apoio à inovação doméstica serão temas que ouviremos de Pequim por um tempo. Ao mesmo tempo, vimos e veremos mais reformas tributárias para reduzir a carga tributária, tanto no lado individual quanto no corporativo.

No futuro, a mudança demográfica representará um problema ainda maior que a já problemática situação das pensões. É necessária uma reforma previdenciária? O que os chineses poderiam fazer?
Sim, a China está perdendo seu dividendo demográfico. Uma solução não pode ser facilmente pensada. As reformas previdenciárias podem fazer parte da solução, mas o desafio é maior do que qualquer coisa que uma reforma possa resolver. Isso exigirá um esforço do setor privado, a inovação do sistema de saúde e o uso de tecnologias digitais para ampliar o acesso à assistência médica a uma população em envelhecimento.

Atualmente, vemos um boom de empreendimentos de assistência médica e de idosos na China, que investem em novas soluções e serviços e aumentam a eficiência em hospitais públicos nas cidades de primeiro e segundo níveis.

* Foto: Terassan Fotografia

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